How to cover risk in the hotel sector
The derivative markets, especially futures and options, play an important role in the management of risk. Usually, the risk source is price uncertainty; but in the hotel industry, the first source of uncertainty is the number of guests (occupancy level). This special feature, however, does not alter the fact that a derivative market can be created. Two examples are the crop yields futures and options contracts being negotiated at the Chicago Board of Trade since 1995 (Berg, Cole and Sandor 1994) and the CATS (futures and options on catastrophe) negotiated at the Chicago board in 1992 and replaced in 1995 by the PCS (property claim services) index options contracts ( CBOT, 1994 and CBOT, 1995).
It should be noted that futures and options are financial instruments. Simply put, a future is a contract in which a party agrees to buy or sell something at a specified date and price. An option is a contract in which the writer (seller) grants the buyer the right to purchase (call options) or sell (put options) something at a specified price within a specified period of time (Fabozzi and Hull). In the hotel case, the futures contracts design presents some problems (discussed later). More flexibly than futures contract, an option performs as an insurance contract, and could be of more interest to agents not directly related to the tourism industry. This research note first reveals the need of a derivative market in the hotel sector and later offers a summary of the outlined alternatives, along with some concluding considerations.
As everyone knows, the tourist trade moves large amounts of money all over the world and many countries find a very important source of income in this mega-industry. The seasonal component and the great sensitivity of demand to national and international forces generate uncertainty; thus, the agents trading in this market (hotels, tour-operators, travel agencies, charter-air companies, etc.) are interested in decreasing the uncertainty. Indeed, hotels are among the most interested in guaranteeing a minimum income allowing them to cover, in advance, part of their fixed costs, which are usually very high and represent the most important proportion of their total expenditures. The question is how a derivative market can help these agents to reduce their risk. The futures and options contracts permit a limited control over the source of uncertainty, so that it is considerably reduced.
Usually, the most important source of uncertainty is price, but in the hotel sector price uncertainty is almost irrelevant. In other words, the price determination in this business does not answer a spot market performance. Instead, it resembles more a forward market since the negotiations on a period (season) are affected in previous ones (here the reference is to the negotiation between tour-operators and hotels, which represent the most important market turnover). Thus, putting aside the breach of these contracts, price uncertainty practically disappears once the negotiations are accomplished and the agents can concern themselves with demand only.
For given prices, it is the fluctuations in visitor numbers that determine the uncertainty of the hotel agent’s income. However, to design the market so that it can face occupancy uncertainty is a little more complex than when a price uncertainty exists. In the latter case, one could negotiate a contract on the price of a specific product, for example, the price of a double room on half board basis in a four star hotel for a week in high season. Regarding occupancy uncertainty, the contract can also take the demand of a specific product as point of reference or preferably an index which represents the whole market; in this sense, the occupancy rate index is the most representative measure. This is more appropriate, for example, than registered guests because it is calculated in relative terms so that the dimension of the reference zone does not influence it.
Berg et al (1994) suggest the attributes which an index must satisfy in order to reflect an accurate value. In this case, to avoid any possibility of manipulation, the index must be calculated by a market committee which examines the occupancy reported by as many hotels as possible to eliminate any bias and to guarantee a fair index value. If the number of hotels included in the index is high and the committee verifies the reports, the market transparency is guaranteed and the agents could trade without suspicion. Other contracts that use indices reported by agents who trade in the market are the crop yield futures and options contracts and the PCS index options contracts; no major problems have been reported, as far as could be ascertained, in these areas. Indeed an index is more difficult to manipulate than a specific product.
The real problem in the use of a hotel occupancy index is that all tourism agents are interested in the growth of the occupancy level. Therefore, all of them would sell futures contracts on the basis of the occupation index and could find it difficult to find buyers. In this sense, various negative developments could occur; the buyers could be speculators searching for benefits or sellers themselves buying contracts to cover costs of default contracts (such as in case of overbooking). These developments would counteract smooth market negotiations. In fact, the market could disappear altogether as happened with CATS (the problem there was to find contract sellers).
Tags: Hotel sector
